Recent actions by Iran and its Iraqi proxies appear designed to appease the U.S. as the Trump administration weighs taking aggressive military action against them both.

While another Labor government would portend domestic and foreign policy continuity, a victory by the Liberal-National coalition would signal a shift toward fiscal austerity, loosened energy regulations, expanded defense spending and stricter immigration regulations.

Rising tensions between the ruling ANC and its key coalition partner over the 2025 budget are raising the risk of a coalition breakdown, which would threaten policy paralysis and a marked depreciation of the rand.

Europe is increasingly focused on achieving greater strategic autonomy in defense, but internal divisions and material constraints will plague this quest, even as the United States' role on the Continent continues to shrink, meaning NATO will likely remain the cornerstone of Europe’s security architecture.