Rising tensions between the ruling ANC and its key coalition partner over the 2025 budget are raising the risk of a coalition breakdown, which would threaten policy paralysis and a marked depreciation of the rand.

Europe is increasingly focused on achieving greater strategic autonomy in defense, but internal divisions and material constraints will plague this quest, even as the United States' role on the Continent continues to shrink, meaning NATO will likely remain the cornerstone of Europe’s security architecture.

If implemented, Trump's threatened 27% tariff would severely hurt certain Indian sectors (e.g., pharmaceuticals), though other sectors (e.g., textiles) could benefit if India's main competitors end up facing even higher tariffs.

Lai's policies to defend sovereignty and curb Chinese influence are prompting greater coercive pressure from Beijing.